Nations, like individuals, develop habits in times of stress. Malaysia’s response to economic shocks has followed a pattern so familiar it almost feels predictable: shock → denial → political venting → forced adjustment → painful acceptance.  We have seen this cycle play out repeatedly—from fuel subsidy rationalisation to the introduction and removal of GST, to periods of currency weakness. Each episode begins with disbelief, escalates into public frustration, and ends with reluctant adaptation. But what if the next shock is not like the last? The current volatility surrounding the Strait of Hormuz suggests we may be entering a far more severe phase. The issue is no longer just about temporary disruptions. It is about a prolonged geopolitical standoff, where a declining superpower struggles to assert dominance over a heavily sanctioned nation that has endured for decades. 

The failure of ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran in Islamabad may appear, at first glance, like yet another distant diplomatic breakdown. But this is not a remote geopolitical episode Malaysians can afford to ignore.  The likelihood of escalation is real, and with it, the continued disruption—or even closure—of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil arteries. When that artery tightens, the shock does not remain in the Middle East. It travels—swiftly and relentlessly—into global markets, national budgets, and ultimately, the daily lives of ordinary Malaysians. This is why Anwar Ibrahim is right to admit that Malaysia is already in a crisis. Not a crisis of panic or collapse, but one of creeping economic pressure—the kind that builds quietly until it becomes unavoidable.

Every time there is a major external shock—war in the Middle East, disruptions to oil supply routes, or sudden spikes in global crude prices—governments around the world face the same difficult task: explaining to the public why fuel subsidies must be reduced or restructured.  On paper, the logic is straightforward. When oil prices rise sharply, maintaining low retail fuel prices through subsidies becomes increasingly expensive and fiscally unsustainable. Yet, despite repeated explanations, many governments struggle to convince the public. Protests emerge, criticism intensifies, and policymakers are accused of failing the very people they are trying to protect. This recurring communication breakdown is not simply a failure of messaging or intelligence. It reflects a deeper and more predictable reality about how people think, feel, and respond under pressure. Understanding this helps explain why even the most rational policies are often met with resistance. The first challenge lies ...