El Niño Is Coming: What Malaysia Should Expect

 

Do you realised that lately, in the afternoon, the car air-conditioning does not seem to work? The air-conditioner may be working perfectly in the morning and evening, yet by mid-afternoon the car becomes unbearably hot and the cooling seems inadequate.

There may be nothing wrong with the air-conditioning. The problem is the extraordinary heat load outside. What we are beginning to experience is the early manifestation of a much larger weather phenomenon: El Niño.

El Niño is not simply “hot weather”. It is a disruption of the normal ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific that changes rainfall, temperature and atmospheric circulation over a huge area. 

The World Meteorological Organization now says the current El Niño is firmly established, is expected to strengthen to a very strong event, and has an almost 100% probability of continuing through February 2027.

Feel it before you understand it

On the ground, El Niño may first be noticed as unusually hot afternoons, fewer clouds, longer dry spells and rainfall that seems increasingly unpredictable.

Its character is not necessarily one continuous drought. It can be erratic, volatile and extreme: weeks of oppressive heat followed by a sudden violent thunderstorm; prolonged dryness followed by flash flooding; one locality suffering water stress while another experiences intense rain.

During a strong El Niño, weaker trade winds allow unusually warm Pacific Ocean water to shift eastward. The centre of rising air, clouds and heavy rainfall also shifts. Areas that normally receive abundant rain can become drier, while other parts of the world receive excessive rainfall.

The current event is particularly concerning because the Pacific has warmed exceptionally rapidly. WMO reports Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperatures rising to around 2.2–2.6°C above average in late July and August, with much warmer water below the surface.

From heat to water stress

The first-order effect is heat. Less cloud and reduced rainfall allow greater solar heating of the land. Evaporation also increases.

Then comes the second-order effect: water. Lower rainfall reduces river flows and reservoir replenishment. Soil becomes drier. Irrigation becomes more difficult. Water demand from households, agriculture and industry rises precisely when supply becomes less certain. That is where El Niño becomes an economic issue.

Malaysia has experienced major El Niño episodes before. The 2015–16 event, dubbed as Monster El Niño, was particularly damaging, while the 2023–24 El Niño demonstrated again how rapidly abnormal heat and rainfall patterns can affect agriculture and ecosystems. 

The current event is expected to be considerably stronger and already being described as supersized El Niño, with WMO warning that its impacts may continue well into 2027.

Agriculture is likely to be the first major casualty

Farmers do not need an entire year without rain to suffer. What matters is whether water is available when crops need it most—for planting, germination, flowering and harvesting.

Rice, vegetables, fruits, rubber and oil palm can all be affected differently. Livestock also suffer from heat stress, requiring more water while potentially producing less.

Planting may have to be postponed. Irrigation costs increase. Yields may decline. The consequence eventually reaches consumers through food prices.

Malaysia is both a major agricultural producer and a substantial importer of food. If domestic production falls at the same time that regional production is affected, Malaysia may have to import more at higher prices. Thus a Pacific Ocean phenomenon can eventually become a Malaysian cost-of-living problem.

Fire creates another danger

Dry vegetation and especially dry peat become increasingly combustible. This is why El Niño is closely associated with heightened wildfire and haze risks in Southeast Asia.

Indonesia is already experiencing serious fires, and the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre warns that strong El Niño and below-normal rainfall are increasing the risk of prolonged dry conditions, hotspots and transboundary haze. And, the haze is not entirely an Indonesian problem.

Haze can disrupt aviation, tourism, construction, schools and outdoor work. It increases healthcare costs and reduces worker productivity.

There is also a human cost. Heat increases dehydration, heat exhaustion and cardiovascular stress, while haze aggravates respiratory and cardiovascular conditions.

Drought and floods can occur together

One of the strangest characteristics of extreme weather is that drought and flooding are not mutually exclusive.

A prolonged dry spell can harden and dry the soil. When an intense storm finally arrives, water may run off rapidly instead of soaking into the ground. So Malaysia could experience water shortages in one period and flash floods in another.

This is why El Niño should be understood as greater climate volatility, rather than simply less rain.

What will it cost Malaysia?

The economic impact will come through at least five channels:

1. Agriculture: lower yields, delayed planting and higher irrigation costs.

2. Food: higher domestic prices and potentially more expensive imports.

3. Energy: hotter weather means greater air-conditioning demand and higher electricity consumption.

4. Water and haze: higher treatment, firefighting, healthcare and business-disruption costs.

5. Insurance and disasters: more fire, drought and extreme-weather claims and greater government expenditure on mitigation and relief.

A reasonable planning assumption is that a substantial El Niño could impose several billion ringgit of direct and indirect economic costs, potentially reaching around RM5–10 billion if drought, agricultural losses and haze become significant. 

A severe compound event could result in considerably more in economic cost. The figure should be regarded as a scenario rather than an official forecast. Budget 2027 need to provide for.

The more important point is that GDP may not tell the whole story. A household can experience El Niño through higher electricity bills, more expensive food, health expenses and lost working days even if the national GDP effect appears relatively small.

What should Malaysians expect?

September: Heat, below-normal rainfall and increasing dryness become more noticeable. Haze and hotspots remain the immediate concern.

October: The monsoon transition may bring more showers and temporary relief, but rainfall is likely to remain uneven.

November: El Niño is expected to strengthen towards its peak. Heat, agricultural stress and water concerns could become more significant.

December: This may be a critical month as the event approaches peak strength. Food production, water reserves and haze conditions deserve close monitoring.

January 2027: The effects are likely to remain significant, even if local rainfall occasionally provides relief.

February: WMO expects El Niño to remain present. The question will increasingly become how quickly conditions return towards normal.

Preparation matters more than prediction

The lesson is not that Malaysia should panic because El Niño is coming. It is that Malaysia should prepare because the weather is becoming less predictable while the economic consequences are interconnected.

Water, food, energy, health and disaster management cannot be treated as separate issues.

The real test of El Niño will therefore not simply be how hot Malaysia becomes. It will be how well Malaysia manages the chain reaction from heat to water, from water to agriculture, from agriculture to food prices, from dryness to fire and haze, and ultimately from all of these to household finances, business costs and government expenditure.

That is the real meaning of national resilience in an El Niño year.